Greg
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FastAPI application that ingests CFTC Commitments of Traders data into SQLite and exposes it via a REST API with analytics endpoints (screener, percentile rank, concentration). Includes CLI for historical and weekly data ingestion, Docker setup, and a frontend. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4.9 KiB
4.9 KiB
CFTC Commitments of Traders Report Analysis
Report Date: February 17, 2026 | Exchange: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Traditional Insights
Agricultural Commodities
| Commodity | Open Interest | Non-Commercial Net | Commercial Net | Weekly Change OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat-SRW | 544,127 | -57,572 (bearish) | +60,193 | -46,415 |
| Wheat-HRW | 329,255 | -5,427 | +10,156 | +13,330 |
| Corn | 2,203,979 | -37,540 (bearish) | +56,855 | +45,769 |
| Soybeans | 1,281,116 | +189,133 (very bullish) | -153,840 | +73,916 |
| Soybean Oil | 864,090 | +36,919 | -47,669 | +22,657 |
| Soybean Meal | 598,663 | +12,664 | -33,774 | -2,217 |
Key Observations:
- Soybeans: Speculators are extremely long (256k long vs 68k short) - the largest bullish positioning in the report. Commercials are heavily hedged short.
- Wheat-SRW: Strong bearish sentiment from speculators (175k short vs 118k long). Open interest dropped 8.5% weekly.
- Corn: Modestly bearish speculator positioning, but massive market (2.2M contracts).
Treasury Futures
| Instrument | Open Interest | Non-Commercial Net | Commercial Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y Note | 4,945,848 | -1,252,133 (extreme short) | +1,143,988 |
| 5Y Note | 7,901,856 | -2,109,670 (extreme short) | +1,976,918 |
| 10Y Note | 7,386,053 | -936,190 (extreme short) | +869,999 |
| Ultra 10Y | 2,598,191 | -100,127 | +238,598 |
| UST Bond | 2,172,484 | +4,672 | -141,824 |
| Ultra UST Bond | 2,262,466 | -271,517 (extreme short) | +251,929 |
Key Observations:
- Massive short bets on the yield curve: Non-commercial traders are aggressively short 2Y, 5Y, and Ultra UST Bonds. This signals expectations for higher rates or steepening.
- 2Y Note: 39.3% of open interest is speculative shorts - extremely one-sided.
- 5Y Note: 33.6% speculative shorts vs only 6.9% longs - historic imbalance.
Innovative Insights
1. Crowded Trade Risk Assessment
High Squeeze Risk Positions:
| Market | Concentration Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 2Y Note Shorts | 39.3% OI | EXTREME |
| 5Y Note Shorts | 33.6% OI | EXTREME |
| Soybean Longs | 20.0% OI | HIGH |
| Wheat-SRW Shorts | 32.2% OI | HIGH |
A dovish Fed surprise or weaker economic data could trigger violent short squeezes in Treasury futures.
2. Commercial/Speculator Divergence Signal
Using the Commercial-Speculator Spread as a contrarian indicator:
Soybeans: Commercials heavily short while specs long → potential top forming
Corn: Commercials net long, specs slightly short → potential bottom
2Y Note: Extreme divergence → watch for reversal when specs cover
3. Cross-Market Flow Analysis
The "Risk-Off Rotation" Pattern:
- Speculators are betting against Treasuries (short rates) but for Soybeans
- This is atypical - usually soybean longs and Treasury shorts don't coincide
- Suggests: Either inflation hedge (commodities up, rates up) OR a fragmented macro view
4. Concentration Risk in Smaller Markets
| Market | Top 4 Traders (Long) | Top 4 Traders (Short) | Manipulation Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3Y ERIS Swap | 100% | 82.1% | CRITICAL |
| 2Y ERIS Swap | 97.9% | 62.9% | HIGH |
| BBG Commodity | 80.3% | 88.1% | HIGH |
| DJ Real Estate | 44.8% | 64.7% | MODERATE |
ERIS SOFR Swap markets are dominated by a handful of players - liquidity events could be severe.
5. Open Interest Momentum Signal
Weekly OI Changes (Conviction Indicator):
- 10Y Note: +487,290 contracts (+7.1%) - massive new positioning
- Soybeans: +73,916 contracts (+6.1%) - bulls adding aggressively
- Wheat-SRW: -46,415 contracts (-8.5%) - traders exiting, trend exhaustion?
6. Non-Reportable (Retail) Positioning
| Market | Retail Long % | Retail Short % | Smart Money Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 8.5% | 9.3% | Neutral |
| Soybeans | 4.7% | 7.4% | Retail fading the rally |
| UST Bond | 12.9% | 6.6% | Retail long, specs neutral |
| Ultra Bond | 8.8% | 7.9% | Retail long, specs short |
Retail is betting against the speculator short in bonds - a contrarian signal.
Summary: Actionable Signals
- High conviction trade watch: Soybean long crowding + commercial hedging = potential reversal setup
- Squeeze alert: Treasury 2Y/5Y shorts are historically extreme - any Fed pivot triggers violent unwind
- Wheat capitulation: Large OI decline + bearish positioning = potential washout bottom
- Illiquidity pockets: ERIS swap markets are one-sided - avoid size positions
- Divergence opportunity: Corn commercials positioning bullish vs. weak speculator sentiment
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - CBT Combined (February 17, 2026)